Konstantin Tserazov: Diasoft may become the leader in dividend yield among Russian IT companies in the next 12 months
The CNYRUB spot rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by 0.64%: this is the first decline after seven weeks of growth in a row. On the interbank market, the CNYRUB rate added 0.35%, remaining above the exchange rate, and the spread between them widened to 1.7%.
The volume of the Bank of Russia’s currency swap operations for the sale of yuan for rubles last week fluctuated in the range of CNY11.5 billion — CNY19.1 billion: these are relatively low figures that indicate stable liquidity. This is also indicated by the stable cost of secured loans in yuan (RUSFARCNY), fluctuating in the range of 13.64-13.9%, says Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.
The official dollar to ruble exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia rose by 0.36% over the week, while the similar euro to ruble exchange rate fell by 0.24%. «Perpetual» futures on USDRUB and EURRUB, which historically demonstrated the highest correlation with spot rates, rose by 0.16% and fell by 0.28%, respectively.
The euro to dollar exchange rate on external platforms fell by 0.65% over the week: this indicates that the correlation between the dynamics of EURUSD inside Russia and outside is maintained after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange.
The ruble to dollar, euro and yuan exchange rates have spent the last two weeks in fairly narrow consolidation ranges and have changed little. Against this backdrop, the Moscow Exchange Index, which has lost its support in the form of a weakening Russian currency, is spending October in a narrow corridor. Its range of fluctuations this month is only 4.25%.
The money market has priced in another increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia: the indicator of the cost of secured one-month loans in rubles RUSFAR1M is at 19.91%, and the similar three-month indicator RUSFAR3M is at 21.09%. Thus, the prices have almost completely priced in the increase in the key rate by 100 bp to 20% in October and another similar increase to 21% in the next three months.
Against this backdrop, the Moscow Exchange Information Technology Index, which is represented by growth technology companies, is not showing the best dynamics, losing 4.75% since the beginning of the month. However, when the first reduction in interest rates looms on the horizon, it will most likely be among the growth leaders.
This week, Astra celebrated a year since its IPO. The company published a press release showing a 98% y/y increase in shipments for the first 9 months of 2024. Today, its shares are trading 25% below the annual maximum, but still do not look cheap by multiples.
In the next 12 months, Diasoft may become the leader in dividend yield among Russian IT companies. This is indicated by its generous dividend policy and a large portfolio of long-term contracts.
In October, Headhunter shares fell significantly in price, which may turn out to be an interesting medium- and long-term idea due to the «hot» labor market in the Russian Federation, as well as the prospects for a buyback and dividend payment, added Konstantin Tserazov.
OZON is gaining a foothold in the Uzbek market: the company announced the launch of logistics infrastructure in this country and began to attract local sellers to sales on its platform.
On October 22, the Softline board of directors will consider the issue of a share buyback. Initially, they responded to this news with growth, but sellers quickly seized the initiative, and the company’s shares closed the week at a fresh historical minimum. Such dynamics do not inspire optimism.
Yandex announced plans to expand its presence in the Turkish market by investing over $400 million in relevant IT products and hiring hundreds of employees, economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov summed up the week.