Konstantin Tserazov: D. Trump's victory in the US presidential election provoked a sharp increase in demand for Russian assets

The CNYRUB spot rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by 0.72%. On the interbank market, CNYRUB fell by 0.9%, equaling the exchange rate, says Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.

The official dollar to ruble exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia rose by 0.29% over the week, while the similar euro to ruble exchange rate fell by 0.65%. «Perpetual» futures on USDRUB and EURRUB, which historically demonstrated the highest correlation with spot rates, rose by 0.37% and fell by 0.96%, respectively.

The euro to dollar exchange rate on external markets fell by 1.1% over the week: this indicates that the correlation between the dynamics of EURUSD inside Russia and outside Russia remains after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange.

The key event of the week was Donald Trump’s confident victory in the US presidential election, which provoked a sharp increase in demand for Russian assets (stocks, rubles and bonds). In particular, the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) added 2.77% by the end of the week, rebounding from the historical minimum reached on November 1.

In addition, data published on Friday show that in the week ending November 5, the growth rate of consumer inflation in the Russian Federation slowed to 0.19% w/w from 0.27% w/w recorded in the previous reporting period. This event creates preconditions for the Bank of Russia to soften its position, although the money market continues to factor in a new increase in the key rate in the next three months. The RUSFAR3M indicator suggests its growth in the specified period by 0.86 percentage points. Since the beginning of the month, nine out of ten sectoral indices of the Moscow Exchange have shown good growth (3.54-8.00%), and the main outsider was the real estate index (-0.87%). The Moscow Exchange Information Technology Index, represented by highly valued growth companies, has added 4.99% since the beginning of the month, lagging behind both most other sectoral indices and the Moscow Exchange Index itself. In the context of high and rising interest rates, such expensive and risky assets — IT company shares — do not look very attractive, added economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.

Tight monetary policy is beginning to have a negative impact on clients of Russian technology companies. In particular, Positive Technologies has reduced its revenue forecast for 2024 to RUB 30-35 billion from RUB 40-50 billion. Last week, the company’s shares remained under pressure against the backdrop of the upcoming additional issue of 7.9% of capital, which was approved by its shareholders on November 7, as well as a weak IFRS report for the first 9 months of this year.

OZON, on the contrary, presented a strong IFRS report for Q3, showing an increase in profitability. The diversification of the company’s business, in which an increasing share of EBITDA comes from fintech, also seems positive. Nevertheless, at current levels, OZON shares still look expensive.

There is an opinion that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could improve relations between the Russian Federation and the United States. Some investors believe that in such a scenario, foreign IT companies could return to the Russian market and push out local players, such as Astra or Iva Technologies.

Arenadata reported net profit under IFRS for 9 months of 2024 against a loss a year earlier.

The Moscow Exchange reported an increase in the free-float coefficient for shares of PJSC Softline to 16%. According to the company itself, this is necessary for its securities to be included in the first quotation list, which is a priority for it, Konstantin Tserazov summed up the week.